Perception Gaps and Community Differences on Crime/Gun Violence

Crime/gun violence is not seen as a significant national problem among residents living in most areas of the U.S.

By Ari Pinkus

A perception schism exists over the degree to which “crime or gun violence” is a major national problem, according to the newest ACP/Ipsos survey of 5,000 people conducted in the late summer.

Lately, media coverage of crime in America has been relentless, from mass shootings to politically targeted assassinations. A notion of out-of-control crime has been the Trump administration’s reason for deploying National Guard troops to Los Angeles and Washington, D.C., this past summer and its effort to expand deployments to other cities this fall.

However, crime/gun violence is not seen as a significant national problem among residents living in most areas of the U.S. The one exception is the African American South, where real crime numbers have been higher than many places. Just above one-quarter of residents (27%) rated crime/gun violence as a top-tier national issue in the ACP/Ipsos survey. The concerns and challenges seem different here.

Meanwhile, in urban-oriented communities, including Big Cities, Urban Suburbs, and College Towns, the percentages of residents who said crime/gun violence was a top national problem sat in the upper teens. The 11 other suburban and rural community types came in at 16% or less.

Nationwide, 16% said crime/gun violence was one of the top three problems facing the country, placing it sixth in the list of top concerns. Comparatively, 41% of respondents cited inflation, 27% said political extremism, 26% reported immigration, 23% said government or business corruption, and 18% said healthcare.

CRIME AS AN IMPORTANT LOCAL ISSUE IN SPECIFIC PLACES

At the local level, residents seemed attuned to what’s been happening on the ground where they live. Consider two community types, the African American South and Big Cities. In the rural African American South, 35% of residents considered crime or gun violence a top-three issue of concern facing their local community. (Crime/gun violence came in second behind inflation for the most concerning issue community-wide.) In Big Cities, 23% of residents said crime or gun violence was a top-three issue of concern in their local community. (In these places, the issue came in third behind inflation and homelessness/housing insecurity.)

Local concerns about crime were higher than national concerns in just three community types: the African American South, Big Cities, and Military Posts, as shown in the chart below.

In tracking the heinous crime of mass shootings, defined as four or more people shot or killed, not including the shooter, there were 381 shootings in 2025 through December 1, according to the Gun Violence Archive. Diverse Big Cities, home to more than 81 million people or 25% of the national population, and African American South communities, home to 13.1 million or 4% of the population, were hardest hit.

The American Communities Project’s analysis of the Gun Violence Archive data showed that African American South communities accounted for 16% of the nationwide number. In prominent African American South counties, eight mass shootings were recorded in Shelby County, Tennessee, containing Memphis; four in Orleans Parish, Louisiana, containing New Orleans; and three in Mobile County, Alabama.

Big Cities accounted for 45% of the nation’s mass shootings through December 1. Some Big City counties stood out. Eight mass shootings were recorded in Philadelphia County, Pennsylvania; 12 in Los Angeles County, California; and 24 in Cook County, Illinois, containing Chicago. These numbers were down from 2023. Notably, major cities, including these, have reported decreases in violent crime.

CHANGE IN PUBLIC ATTITUDES AND RAW NUMBERS SINCE 2023

Since the ACP/Ipsos survey series began in the summer of 2023, crime/gun violence has dropped as a national concern. In 2023, 30% of respondents rated it as a top concern. According to the Gun Violence Archive, in 2023, there were 36,562 willful, malicious, or accidental injuries from gun violence nationwide, and 19,135 deaths considered willful, malicious, or accidental. That year, mass shootings nationwide hit 659, according to the GVA.

In 2024, 22% of ACP/Ipsos respondents ranked crime/gun violence as a top concern. On a nationwide level that year, there were 31,646 willful, malicious, or accidental injuries from gun violence, and 16,725 deaths considered willful, malicious, or accidental, according to the Gun Violence Archive. There were 503 mass shootings.

Declining Local Concern

Crime/gun violence has also dropped as a top local concern among residents across communities these past few years. The African American South was the exception.

• In 2023, crime/gun violence was the No. 2 most important issue facing in different rural, urban, and suburban communities: the African American South, Big Cities, Urban Suburbs, and Middle Suburbs.

• It was the No. 3 most important local issue for College Towns, Hispanic Centers, Military Posts, and Working Class Country.

• Big Cities accounted for 40% of mass shootings, Urban Suburbs accounted for 15%, the African American South accounted for 15%, College Towns accounted for 8%, and all other suburban and rural types were below those percentages, based on the ACP’s analysis in November 2023.

In 2024, residents’ attitudes about crime at the community level looked markedly better. Notably, in mid-2022, the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act was implemented, considered the most substantial gun violence prevention law in nearly 30 years.

• In 2024, crime/gun violence remained the No. 2 most important local issue in the African American South.

• In Big Cities, it was the No. 3 most important issue.

• All other community types placed crime/gun violence as less of a local issue of importance.

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