Who Voters Think is to Blame for Inflation in June
More communities see Trump as responsible
By Dante Chinni
As President Donald Trump’s time in office grows, so does his perceived responsibility for inflation, according to an analysis from the American Communities Project and PharosGraph, a behavioral-science and artificial intelligence firm. But as the year goes on, “corporate greed” is also growing as a target.
The 15 community types in the ACP continue to have different top targets for blame, but the numbers have shifted since last month’s analysis. The data suggest that some of the deep political divides in the ACP types remain firm, but others look more fluid, especially around inflation.
The types in the ACP don’t just represent different kinds of geographies in the United States, they are home to different cultures and news environments. Those differences lead to varied understandings of what is driving inflation.
To be clear, inflation is still a top issue with voters. A mid-June Fox News poll found 84% of respondents were extremely concerned or very concerned about inflation. And the Trump administration is still seen as the leading force behind that number, according to the PharosGraph data.
The National Picture
In June, the PharosGraph analysis found the Trump administration over-indexed for inflation blame with a score of 1.46. That was essentially unchanged from last month’s figure of 1.48, and it was still the highest index score among seven potential blame targets.
“Corporate greed” was second on the list, with an index score of 1.23. That’s a pretty big jump compared to last month (a score of .34), and it suggests that at least some of the White House arguments about inflation are making it through the news clutter to people. The president has repeatedly called on retailers and other businesses to hold the line of costs for the sake of their customers and the nation.
From there, it is a pretty big drop to the third above average entity, the Federal Reserve, with a score of .54. All the other potential blame targets have negative index scores, which means they are less likely to be seen as a cause for inflation than other options.
It should be noted that there may be some bad news for the White House in the negative index scores for former President Joe Biden (-1.44), Immigration (-1.42) and China (-.63). Those are three entities that President Trump likes to target in remarks and voters don’t seem to see them as a big part of the nation’s problems around inflation.
The work behind the PharosGraph data involved analyzing hundreds of thousands of stories from tens of thousands of US-based news outlets. The firm then used a large language model (LLM) to estimate how likely people with different socio-demographic characteristics and political preferences are to blame each target for inflation.
That approach married with the demographic data that exists behind the ACP’s typology was able to produce blame targets for each of the Project’s 15 community types that show just how complicated assigning blame can be and how views on “who’s to blame” for inflation can move.
At the Community Level
The biggest changes at the community level around inflation for June look largely political.
First, President Trump is now the top target for blame in five of the 15 community types — last month he was the top target in only three. Second, Joe Biden is now the top blame target in only three community types — last month he was the top target in four types.
And third, maybe more telling, Biden was viewed as the bottom blame target in seven of the 15 community types. Last month, Biden was the bottom blame target in only two of the types.
Those numbers are revealing because they suggest Trump is increasingly seen as the architect of the nation’s current economic situation, while Joe Biden is increasingly seen as a figure who has departed the stage. In other words, more communities seem to see this as Trump’s economy now and that means inflation, which helped get him elected, now seems to be his problem.
Consider the places where Trump was the top blame target for June. The Big Cities, College Towns and African American South all voted for Democrat Kamala Harris in 2024. But the Middle Suburbs and Military Posts, which also had Trump as their top inflation blame target in June, actually voted for Trump in November. If that trend holds in the next few months, those numbers could be a challenge for a president with relatively low job approval numbers.
The places where Biden is still seen as the top blame target for inflation all voted for Trump by large margins in 2024: the Evangelical Hubs, Native American Lands and Working Class Country.
More interesting, though, may be the sudden rise in blame for “corporate greed” in the ACP types. Not a single community type had corporate greed as its top blame target in May. In June, it was the top target in four types: the Exurbs, Urban Suburbs, Graying America and LDS Enclaves.
That’s a complicated collection of places. The Exurbs are reliably Republican, but well-educated and fairly wealthy. The Urban Suburbs are reliably Democratic, but also well-educated and fairly wealthy. The two community types don’t tend to agree on much, but these numbers suggest there may be some broad-based irritation at how corporate America is handling a complicated economic time.
Graying America is older and rural with lots of people living on fixed incomes, and the LDS Enclaves are conservative, but also rural and often home to large younger families. Both may be more sensitive to inflation due to their socioeconomic circumstances. When money is tight or you need to buy for more people, price increases can hit especially hard.
The Next Few Months
Of course, all these numbers are subject to change as the nation’s economic situation develops. The tariff fights that have marked the first half of 2025 haven’t really hit home yet.
Some analysts forecast a steady inflation rate for 2025 and maybe a slight rise in 2026. Some even see the dreaded “stagflation” (low economic growth and inflation) possibly looming.
Whatever happens, it will likely hit the communities of the ACP differently and the blame targets will almost certainly shift. We’ll be watching those numbers in the months ahead.